Sunday, May 5, 2013

Euro -- 'catastrophic' currency


Oskar Lafontaine, the German finance minister who launched the euro:


"The economic situation is worsening from month to month, and unemployment has reached a level that puts democratic structures ever more in doubt," he said.
"The Germans have not yet realised that southern Europe, including France, will be forced by their current misery to fight back against German hegemony sooner or later," he said, blaming much of the crisis on Germany's wage squeeze to gain export share.
Mr Lafontaine said on the parliamentary website of Germany's Left Party that Chancellor Angela Merkel will "awake from her self-righteous slumber" once the countries in trouble unite to force a change in crisis policy at Germany's expense.
His prediction appeared confirmed as French finance minister Pierre Moscovici yesterday proclaimed the end of austerity and a triumph of French policy, risking further damage to the tattered relations between Paris and Berlin.
"Austerity is finished. This is a decisive turn in the history of the EU project since the euro," he told French TV. "We're seeing the end of austerity dogma. It's a victory of the French point of view."

Monday, April 1, 2013

Great!


Then, when the Fed’s fire hoses started spraying an elephant soup of liquidity injections in every direction and its balance sheet grew by $1.3 trillion in just thirteen weeks compared to $850 billion during its first ninety-four years, I became convinced that the Fed was flying by the seat of its pants, making it up as it went along. It was evident that its aim was to stop the hissy fit on Wall Street and that the thread of a Great Depression 2.0 was just a cover story for a panicked spree of money printing that exceeded any other episode in recorded human history.
David Stockman, The Great Deformation

Thursday, March 28, 2013

Printing Money


When you print money, the money does not flow evenly into the economic system. It stays essentially in the financial service industry and among people that have access to these funds, mostly well-to-do people. It does not go to the worker. I just mentioned that it doesn't flow evenly into the system.
Now from time to time it will lift the NASDAQ like between 1997 and March 2000. Then it lifted home prices in the U.S. until 2007. Then it lifted the commodity prices in 2008 until July 2008 when the global economy was already in recession. More recently it has lifted selected emerging economies, stock markets in Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, up four times from 2009 lows and now the U.S.
So we are creating bubbles and bubbles and bubbles. This bubble will come to an end. My concern is that we are going to have a systemic crisis where it is going to be very difficult to hide. Even in gold, it will be difficult to hide.
Faber is, of course, still bearish on U.S. stocks. He told Bloomberg that he sees "considerable downside risk" in the market.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/faber-gold-wont-be-a-place-to-hide-2013-3#ixzz2OtVKk21q

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Like Musical Chairs -- When does it end?


"we all know it's going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money" - ZH translation: "just make sure to sell ahead of everyone else", just like everyone sold ahead of everyone else on October 11th 2007, the last time stocks were here...
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5
  • Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
  • GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
  • Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
  • Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
  • Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
  • US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%
  • US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
  • Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
  • US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
  • Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
  • Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
  • S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+
  • VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%
  • 10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%
  • USDJPY: Then 117; Now 93
  • EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050
  • Gold: Then $748; Now $1583
  • NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares

Monday, February 25, 2013

Argo. Who are they kidding?

Argo was not the best motion picture of 2012; not by a long-shot; or by a close-up, or by any other measure.

The selection of Argo only proves that academy members are focused more on politics, and less on art and entertainment.


Sunday, February 10, 2013

How to open the scriptures?

Of course we read the scriptures with the intent of receiving personal revelation, which is the vertical approach. However, that is scripture reading 101 -- if that's ALL we do.

Here is a parable: two men set out to find diamonds in a field where diamonds are known to be found.
One man uses his hands to sift through the soft sand, and carefully inspects every handful, and he finds a gem stone here and there after working very diligently.  The other man shows up with tools used for digging; a pick, a shovel, and a screen used for separating the find sand, etc.  Who do you expect recovers more diamonds, day in and day out?  The man who brings the tools appropriate for the job.

So it is with the scriptures.  The Lord has given us Prophets and "wise men." Additional tools are obtained by reading source materials prepared by scholars who have dedicated their lives to gathering information and special incite about the subject matter. Biblical scholarship is a flood-light used to illuminate the field.

Bring all you can to the scriptures, and then ask for personal revelation on the subject. This approach is scripture reading 401, and it requires some outside effort. One must digress just a bit, and read someone else's informed opinion on the subject matter. For example, understanding "the manner of the Jews" teaches us that in the scriptures trees = people, mountains = nations, etc. This approach will tend to net the most diamonds, in my opinion.  There are may examples where one man opens the scriptures for another; i.e., the Lord on the road to Emmaus.

Eventually, a man may go beyond all the helps provides by enlightened scholarship; and in that case, pondering the scriptures with a desire to known the meaning will open the windows of heaven. But until that day, a simple way to help open the flood-gates, is to go to the experts and gain some greater light and knowledge, and then go back to the scriptures with tools to unlock the mysteries.


Economic Collapse Inevitable?

It starts with the reckless strategy of the Federal Reserve to print a massive amount of money out of thin air in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

“These funds haven’t made it into the markets and the economy yet. But it is a mathematical certainty that once the dam breaks, and this money passes through the reserves and hits the markets, inflation will surge,” said Wiedemer.

“Once you hit 10% inflation, 10-year Treasury bonds lose about half their value. And by 20%, any value is all but gone. Interest rates will increase dramatically at this point, and that will cause real estate values to collapse. And the stock market will collapse as a consequence of these other problems.”